The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 the Paris Agreement on climate; main goal which is to provide guidance how “to achieve long-term temperature set out in 2”. Paraphrasing, says that, this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG fall zero second half century. To aggregate emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used convert non-CO 2 equivalent CO emissions. The GWP-scaling method tested using methane as example. projections GWP-100 scaling shown be seriously error. throws doubt use estimate An alternative determine net-zero point for based radiative forcing derived, where identified with maximum forcing. shows meet goal, needs reached early 2036, much sooner than window. Other scientific problems further undermine its purpose guide efforts targets discussed.